Despite some pressing concerns around debt levels and weak business investment, the overall economic outlook for Canada in the near term is unequivocally positive. The vaccination campaign has ramped up significantly in recent weeks: in the week from June 8 to June 14, Canada administered an average of about 424,000 vaccines a day. Progress on inoculation combined with strict public health measures have resulted in a steep drop in new COVID-19 cases and have allowed provinces to move forward with their reopening plans.
Since the start of the pandemic, getting the public health situation under control has been the key to a true recovery. With such significant progress on that front, we can look forward to a summer and autumn of strong economic growth. The reopening also means that sectors of the economy that have largely been left behind—such as those in the hospitality industry—will realize strong gains.
A recovery in these sectors should also help to even out the inequality in employment outcomes we’ve seen thus far, given that these industries employ many women and younger Canadians.
Taken together, we can expect the second half of 2021 to bring stronger and more equal economic growth. This is certainly something to look forward to as we head into summer.